Ukraine: Six Scenarios

If this were a movie it would have an “R” rating — not for the squeamish

(Editor’s Note: A seminal book in my education was a slim volume called “The Art of the Long View” by the great Peter Schwartz, who, along with a group of people that included Stewart Brand and Jay Ogilvy, founded the Global Business Network. GBN focused on scenario planning, developed by Herbert Kahn at the Rand Institute in the 1950s, to help businesses and governments chart their future by imagining all the different paths it might take, thereby building resiliency. Herewith, on a Sunday morning when I’m licking my wounds from Duke’s heartbreaking loss to UNC in the Final Four, are six armchair scenarios involving Ukraine and where it might go from here. These amateur exercises are just that: meant for your casual consideration more than anything else, sort of like a mental Rubik’s Cube. Hat tip for the idea also goes to Kim Stanley Robinson and his book “Three Californias.”)

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SCENARIO 1: FAILED STATE

After a burst of nationalistic bravado, amplified by global support, Ukraine gradually gets beaten down by incessant bombing of its population centers, until only shells are left of great cities, and only memories left of civil order — or security of any kind. NATO gets worn down and the world moves on. After the 15th assassination attempt, the Russians are successful and President Zelensky is killed (drone strike on his SUV) and replaced with a Kremlin puppet. Russia, wracked by the cost of the war, ongoing sanctions and internal dissent, offers no meaningful economic support. Ukraine becomes a failed state, essentially hanging out a “business open” sign for mercenaries, opportunists, extremists, criminals and other reprobates. Like Chechnya or Afghanistan, Ukraine is now a black hole of uncertainty defined by subsistence and lawlessness.

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SCENARIO 2: RETURN OF TRUMP

The war doesn’t go well for Biden. In the third month, he loses his focus or his interest, but momentum for a U.S. spigot of aid slows down considerably. The country is obsessed with inflation. Ukraine grinds on and people start to blame Biden for that too; his favorability slips into the 20s. Republicans feel empowered. Trump becomes more visible, doing a lot of TV and rallies. “I told you Putin was a genius,” he gloats. “He’s running circles around Dopey Joe.” Trump gets the nomination easily, picking Lindsey Graham as his VP. He drops MAGA branding and goes with TAB — Take America Back. “America is so far gone people,” says Trump. “Oh it’s farther gone than anything has been, ever. So first we have to take it back, then we can start making it great again.” Trump rallies become dramatically more animated. “1/6” flags become more prevalent. The Republican ticket wins by 7 points, and a very dark period for America sets in.

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SCENARIO 3: ARMAGEDDON OUTTA HERE!

Putin is assassinated by a cabal of oligarchs. Sergei Shoigu, the Defense Minister, assumes the Russian presidency. His first act is to launch a blitzkrieg attack on Kyiv, unleashing sustained firepower from land, air and sea that hasn’t been seen since WWII. NATO steps in declaring that it’s invoking Article 5 out of “sheer compassion and love of humanity. We cannot watch this continue.” When NATO attempts to create a no-fly zone, Russia engages fiercely. After a stalemate of 48 hours, Russia launches a tactical nuclear weapon into Kyiv. The losses are horrendous. Fighting pauses out of pure shock, on both sides (it’s revealed later that only three people knew in advance about the nuclear strike, two of them obviously being Putin and Shoigu). Eighteen hours later, NATO launches a tactical nuclear counterstrike in the Donbas, where more than 30 percent of Russian troops are concentrated. Casualties are in the tens of thousands. All nuclear powers in NATO go on high alert. In response, nonaligned actors, including China, North Korea, India and Pakistan also go on high alert. The UN calls for an immediate multilateral cease-fire.

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SCENARIO 4: NEW ACTORS, SAME STORY

The war grinds on. Russian strategy still seems chaotic and reactive, but shelling of urban centers continues, causing increased displacement of Ukrainians (refugees surpass the 12 million mark by mid-May). The U.S., after a time, seems unsure of its strategy. Biden appears more and more detached until, one day, he suffers a stroke during an impromptu scrum with the press in the Rose Garden. He does not recover and Vice President Harris assumes the presidency. The transition is chaotic, with large inchoate demonstrations that seem to be focused against Harris, but also against a wide range of other issues. The demonstrations metastasize, as does associated violence, until the media is making comparisons with the widescale urban unrest of the late 1960s. It’s reported that party elders are actively guiding President Harris and after a protracted period, she selects former Defense Secretary Leon Panetta as her VP. Markets stabilize and demonstrations start to dial down. The U.S. and NATO, now clearly under U.S. leadership, refocus on Ukraine, where national forces and militias painstakingly gain the upper hand over demoralized Russian troops. By August, a negotiated settlement leads to the complete withdrawal of Russian troops from Ukraine, except for the Donbas, which is declared a “protectorate state” of Russia. The Russian economy has collapsed and Putin tries to restore some sense of domestic order. Global energy markets stabilize and inflation begins ticking down in the U.S. Messaging from the White House is now focusing on a new theme — “Common Interests, Common Sense.” Republicans pick up Congressional seats in the midterm elections, but the “Red Wave” fails to materialize in a significant way. Surrounded by a team of Washington veterans, Harris seems to grow into the job and her favorability starts ticking up.

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SCENARIO 5: GLOBAL RECESSION

Frustrated and worn down by battlefield failures and accumulating impacts from economic sanctions, Putin triggers an economic “nuclear option.” He imposes a blanket export ban on Europe and the U.S., denying NATO countries and America access to any and all Russian exports, notably all fossil fuels (oil, gas and coal), wheat, iron, steel, aluminum, nickel and palladium. He pitches this to Russian citizens as a transition to a “New Russia” unencumbered by the West, but warns that it will bring much economic pain in the process. China steps in to buy large volumes of Russian oil, gas and coal at a discounted price, invoking force majeure to abandon long-term contracts with U.S. suppliers of LNG. This is an economic catastrophe for the EU, which depends on Russian imports of oil and gas for up to 40 percent of its energy needs. The U.S. and other suppliers try, but can’t completely fill the gap in the short-term. The EU is plunged into recession as the price of Brent crude tops $200 a barrel and natural gas prices soar from around $5 per million British Thermal Units to well over $12/MMBtu. The price of gasoline in the U.S. tops $12 a gallon on the West Coast. Coupled with soaring prices for food and other commodities, particularly palladium, nickel and uranium, the U.S. quickly sinks into recession. Putin continues his bombing of Ukraine cities until the country capitulates in a destructive and Pyrrhic victory for Russia.

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SCENARIO 6: A NEW WORLD

After failing to take Kyiv, Russian troops retreat and rearm. As they launch their second offensive, Ukraine is more prepared. Armaments have been flowing in from NATO, including Polish MIGs, which prove to be an effective deterrent to Russia’s air war. Losing support at home, especially from Russia’s elite that aspires to be members of the global community and its attendant lifestyle, Putin pulls out of Ukraine completely, hailing the Ukraine episode as a demonstration of Russia’s “strength and compassion.” A wave of venture capital and private equity flows into Ukraine to take advantage of rapid business formation. President Zelensky is awarded the Nobel Peace Prize. Buoyed by regained stability, the EU economy surges, so much so that Britain restores normal trade relations with the EU (Boris Johnson leaves office unceremoniously to host a new TV game show, “Why Don’t YOU Be Prime Minister?”). China tacks with the wind and reorients to more of an international posture, liberalizing state controls on business, media and culture. Meanwhile, in the Mideast, negotiations among Israel and Arab countries that began under the Abraham Accords blossom into a multilateral treaty that outlines coordinated security rights, free trade flows, business development and cultural exchanges through the year 2040. Liberated from Covid, stimulated by economic growth and confident in the future, America elects Elon Musk as its new President in 2024. Selecting Stacy Abrams as his Vice-President, Musk declares a vision of “security, prosperity, industry and exploration” in America. The political polarization that afflicted the country for the past decade diminishes significantly. In President Zelensky’s first state visit to the U.S., he tells the country, “Just as you were in 1776, 1865, 1945, 1989, and 2022, you are today — a beacon of hope, what your President Reagan called a shining city on a hill.” Most of the world seems to agree.