The United States of Consensus
We agree on more things than you might think — Congress needs to catch up
Is anybody listening?
While Congress gnashes its collective teeth and ties itself up in knots arguing over what to do about issues like gun control, climate change, immigration, the budget deficit and Ukraine, Americans actually seem to be in broad consensus regarding many of the biggest challenges facing the country.
While a majority of Americans think the country is more polarized than at any time since the 1960s, we are, in fact, strongly aligned on some big issues. Public opinion is fickle and notoriously difficult to measure, but given the best tools at our disposal — such as longitudinal surveys by respected organizations like Pew and Gallup — we can get a relatively good fix on the pulse of America.
Here are a few snapshots of the collective judgment of the American people today.
Abortion. About 85 percent of people polled by Gallup believe that abortion should be legal under “any” or “some” circumstances. Some 61 percent disagree with the Supreme Court’s decision effectively overturning Roe v Wade.
Guns. More than 56 percent of those polled by Gallup think that laws governing the sales of firearms should be stricter.
Health Care. Almost 60 percent of those polled believe it is the responsibility of the federal government to make sure Americans have health care coverage.
Immigration. Americans overwhelmingly (68 percent) think immigration is a “good thing,” with only 27 percent seeing it as a “bad thing.” However, 84 percent see the current immigration system as a “very” or “somewhat” serious problem, according to Monmouth University, with 53 percent in support of a border wall.
Climate. A majority of Americans say government should do more to address climate, according to the Pew Center, with 90 percent calling for more (1 trillion) tree plantings; 84 percent supporting tax credits for carbon capture and 73 percent supporting a carbon tax. About 71 percent agree with tougher fuel efficiency standards for vehicles.
Federal Budget. For 57 percent of Americans polled by Pew, the ballooning budget deficit is a “high priority.”
Government. Americans generally believe our elected leaders are getting too old and according to Pew polling, 79 percent of us support age limits for elected officials in Washington D.C.
Ukraine. While Congress debates a new Ukraine aid package ad infinitum, 66 percent of Americans believe the U.S. should continue its support of the country’s defense against Russia even if it turns into a prolonged conflict.
These are some pretty significant issues we’re aligned on as Americans. Granted, there’s much less consensus if you break responses down across party lines, education, or other factors. But all rolled up, in sample sizes of 1,000-plus responses, some of which have been tracked for decades, we get a fairly definitive idea of where we stand on an aggregate basis, the so-called wisdom of the crowd.
So why do we all feel that we’re so divided and polarized as a country? Because that’s what we perceive, despite all the data to the contrary. And as faithful readers know, JEP firmly believes that perception is roughly 90 percent of reality.
For example, according to More in Common, when Democratic voters were asked whether they wanted students to learn about how the Declaration of Independence and the Constitution advanced freedom and equality, 92 percent agreed. But Republicans wrongly estimated that only 45 percent of Democrats would agree. Republicans also mistakenly thought only 42 percent of Democrats would agree that Presidents George Washington and Abraham Lincoln should be admired for their roles in American history, but actually 87 percent of Democrats agreed.
On the other side, Republican voters overwhelmingly agreed (93 percent) that we have a responsibility to learn from our past and fix our mistakes, but Democratic voters wrongly estimated that only 35 percent of Republicans would agree. Democrats also mistakenly thought that only 38 percent of Republicans would agree that Martin Luther King and Rosa Parks should be taught as examples of Americans who fought for equality, but actually 93 percent of Republicans agreed.
This is what’s called the “perception gap” — the gulf between what we believe and what we think the other side believes. Bridging the gap requires data, good intentions, interventions and risk-taking — qualities that are all in short supply right now.
Besides the perception gap, another factor driving polarization is our political system. Political candidates today come up through a primary system that is increasingly contentious and combative and in which, generally speaking, the most extreme candidates get the most votes.
Thus, we have a Congress today which literally has no political center and is completely detached from public consensus on some of the biggest challenges we face.
Every year, Gallup asks more than 1,000 people which professions they trust. In the latest poll, nurses rank at the top of the most trusted list (78 percent), along with veterinarians (65 percent) and engineers (60 percent). At the bottom — the very bottom — were car salespeople (8 percent), U.S. senators (8 percent) and members of Congress (6 percent).
Given the clear consensus Americans have on key issues and the utter lack of leadership on those issues in Congress, it’s surprising those numbers aren’t even lower. Politics today is about pugilism, not problem-solving; the bombast of Elizabeth Warren and Marjorie Taylor Greene versus the consensus building of Jim Lankford and Joe Manchin.
The real polarization today is not among the American people, but among the people and the political class. Americans have identified the most pressing problems facing the country, they agree on some broad solutions for those problems, and they expect elected officials to fix them, not fight about them.
In my mind, this explains why Americans are so pessimistic at the moment. It’s not so much that we’re being beaten down by the problems themselves, but by the fact that we can’t seem to fix them. Even when we have a solution in our grasp, like the bipartisan immigration bill, political pugilism and partisanship torpedoes it.
I think most Americans are fundamentally fed up with this. Once we’re finally exhausted by all this civic enmity, we’ll come to see that we’re more united by our basic human aspirations for security, prosperity and self-fulfillment than divided by political dogma.
There’s more of us than you might think.
“Before Woodstock, I didn’t have real direction. I basically didn’t have a lot of friends, but I knew I was looking for peace and justice and wanted to be with creative people who were looking to make the world a better place,” Akinyele Sadiq told the AP’s intrepid Michael Liedtke about his experience at Woodstock 55 years ago. “Before Woodstock, if you were living in a little town, you thought there might be a dozen people out there you might be able to get along with. But then you realized there was at least a half a million of us. It just gave me hope.”
It won’t happen overnight, and certainly not in this election cycle, but it will happen. This is America and, as Winston Churchill once noted, we always make the right decision after we’ve exhausted all the alternatives.
"political pugilism" nice turn of phrase Russ ! You didn't mention sticker shock at the food markets. Groceries becoming a luxury item, when humans need to eat to live.
Wish our press would focus on this. Excellent article in this weekend's FT by Francis Fukuyama paraphrased here:
https://pamfleti.net/english/bota/si-mund-te-ndalohet-rrenimi-i-demokracise-se-amerikes-i215694