Fortress America

Mssrs. Smoot and Hawley have a lesson to teach Donald Trump

Rep. Willis Hawley, left, and Sen. Reed Smoot — the Tariff Twins

During Donald Trump’s first term his administration built nearly 500 miles of “The Wall” along the southern border (to be fair, about 350 miles of The Wall was simply improvements to existing barriers that were in disrepair). His message was clear — he wanted to seal off America from immigrants entering the country illegally.

In his second term, Trump added a wall of legal and administrative actions to stem illegal immigration, which had the intended effect. Reports indicate that daily illegal alien encounters at the southern border have dropped by 95 percent compared to the Biden administration, with illegal alien “gotaways” decreasing by 93 percent.

The Wall — whether built of bricks or ICE — worked.

Now Trump’s building a new wall around the entire country. It’s called tariffs. This one may not work out so well.

He’s imposed tariffs of 25 percent and above on a range of products and countries — allies and adversaries alike — with more to come. It hasn’t taken long for the retaliation to begin.

The EU intends to impose tariffs on goods from the United States worth some 26 billion euros ($28 billion) in two phases, on April 1 and April 13. The tariffs will target steel and aluminum products, but also American beef, poultry, bourbon, motorcycles, peanut butter and jeans. The EU is holding off until Trump announces a new round of reciprocal tariffs next week.

Confused? Let’s go over to Alexis and Dean on YouTube for a quick primer.

History has proven that tariffs don’t work. Actually, they make things worse.

In 1930, Sen. Reed Smoot and Rep. Willis Hawley cooked up the Smoot-Hawley Tariff Act, which imposed tariffs on more than 20,000 imported goods. It failed spectacularly.

After Smoot-Hawley’s passage, according to The Economist "... global trade fell by two-thirds. It was so catastrophic for growth in America and around the world that legislators have not touched the issue since. 'Smoot-Hawley' became synonymous with disastrous policy making.”

Undeterred by history, Donald Trump has become the Tariff King, wielding his executive power like Congressman Al Green wielding his cane.

The great political sage and California Gov. Pat Brown, whose son Jerry went on to serve four terms as governor himself, used to say, “Don’t mess with a man’s car or his guns.” There’s wisdom in those words.

Here’s a snapshot of the potential impacts of Trump’s 25 percent tariff on car and truck imports.

• The tariffs could raise the cost of new vehicles by several thousand dollars, with some estimates suggesting increases between $5,000 and $15,000 depending on the model.

• Repair costs will also rise due to increased prices for imported parts, which make up a significant portion of repair bills. This could further drive up auto insurance premiums.

• The tariffs aim to bolster domestic manufacturing but could reduce competition and disrupt global supply chains. Automakers face challenges in quickly adjusting sourcing or relocating production.

• Analysts warn of potential economic slowdowns due to reduced consumer spending on vehicles and higher costs throughout the supply chain.

Global trade is a vast, complex and interconnected system. What was destructive in 1930 will be even more so in 2025.

Trump says he’s playing the long game with tariffs and that eventually they will catalyze a renaissance in American manufacturing, a key to realizing his vision of a “Golden Age.” That’s a big gamble with a payoff that will take years or decades, with a lot of uncertainty along the way.

In the meantime, economic adversaries like China, sensing an opportunity, have already begun poaching.

China President Xi Jinping recently called a meeting of foreign CEOs that was attended by the heads of Pfizer, Blackstone, Mercedes-Benz, HSBC and other global companies with lots of capital to invest.

His message: “Globalization is an unstoppable historical trend” and that China is open for business and eager to help foreign companies thrive.

Xi is nothing if not an opportunist. He smells blood in the water.

Our ostensible allies — Canada, Mexico and the EU — are all retreating and devising strategies to deal with Fortress America.

Financial markets are breathing in. Investors entered 2025 bullish about pro-growth government policies under Trump, but instead the stock market has swooned since his inauguration. Headlines on tariffs have rattled Wall Street, shrinking the S&P 500 as much as 10 percent earlier this month. The benchmark index is on pace to finish the first quarter down about 3 percent, its biggest decline for the first three months since 2022.

"I'm an eternal bull, but I would tell you that I think that between now and next week, and certainly the beginning of earnings season, I think there's more potential downside than upside right now," Mark Malek, Chief Investment Officer at Siebert Financial told Reuters.

With nearly 60 percent of Americans invested in the stock market, Main Street is already taking a beating from tariffs. The same thing happened in 1930. The depression worsened for workers and farmers despite Smoot and Hawley's promises of prosperity from high tariffs.

History may not be repeating itself exactly, but it’s starting to rhyme awfully hard.

In 1932, Hawley lost renomination, while Smoot was one of 12 Republican senators who lost their seats, with the swing being one of the largest in Senate history.

If Trump’s tariff experiment fails, which it’s likely to do, that will be a rhyme that Republicans will find difficult to swallow in the 2026 midterms.